The Statistics on Offending Tell an Important Tale


Tonight I've been pondering newly released statistics on offending patterns of prisoners. As a data nerd, and as someone who has previously taught statistics, these types of things fascinate me. In social science, we are not used to seeing big bold patterns, so when they show up, it's hard not to really sit up and take notice.

So let's talk about the offense patterns of male-to-female trans prisoners. In many US states, as well as in Canada and the UK, such prisoners are increasingly housed in female prisons. The argument, of course, is since they identify as women, they should be placed with women. What has not been asked until recently is if their offending patterns are similar to women's or similar to men's or something entirely different. (A footnote to all of this is that the crimes of these individuals are often captured in official statistics as crimes committed by women. That begs the question of whether the offending patterns are similar enough to justify that decision. The decision was made before the question was ever answered.)

In general, based on recent US statistics, the rate of imprisonment for men and women are very different. Females: 60 per 100,000 (female adults) are incarcerated. Males: 879 per 100,000 (male adults) are incarcerated. So males are incarcerated at over 14 times the rate of females. Of total males incarcerated (1,131,100), 152,000 were in for murder: that's about 13% of male prisoners. Of total females incarcerated (90,200), 10,400 were incarcerated for murder: about 8.7% of female prisoners. Concerning rape and sexual assault, 165,500 males were incarcerated versus 2300 female incarcerated. So 14.6% of male prisoners were imprisoned for rape.sexual assault, and 2.5% of female prisoners.

So let's take a look. First, let's take a look at Scotland. Of the 5 male-to-female individuals in women's prisons in Scotland, 4 are murderers. 80% are murderers. That not only looks nothing like the female percentages for murder, it also looks nothing like the male percentages for murder. It's instructive to consider the murders committed by these 4 individuals--this information is from the Times article linked above:

• Alex Stewart, formerly Alan Baker, was jailed for life for murder in 2013 after stabbing the victim, John Weir, 16 times in Bonhill, Dunbartonshire.

• Sophie Eastwood, formerly Daniel Eastwood, then 19, was convicted of murder after strangling Paul Algie at a young offenders’ institution in Dumfries in 2004. That sentence was increased for an attack on a prison guard, before Eastwood reportedly self-identified as a woman in 2018. Eastwood is now said to identify as an infant and wants all meals “blended like baby food”.

• Paris Green, formerly Peter Laing, was jailed for a minimum of 18 years in 2013 for the murder of Robert Shankland, 45, in Glenrothes, Fife.

• Melissa Young, once Richard McCabe, was convicted of the murder of a neighbour in Edinburgh, Alan Williamson, on Christmas Day 2013. The victim sustained 29 stabbing injuries.

"Kate Coleman, of Keep Prisons Single Sex, said: “These are violent male offenders, all four of whom have caused significant problems in the female estate . . . including sexual exhibitionism (Stewart and Eastwood), harassment and stalking (Eastwood), sexual threats and inappropriate sexual relationships (Green) and violent assault (Young).”"


What about Canada? Let's look:

"A recent study conducted by the Correctional Service of Canada (CSC), an “Examination of Gender Diverse Offenders,” which surveyed 99 “gender diverse” inmates between 2017 and 2020, found that of the 61 male inmates in the study who identified as transgender or something other than male, 46% had committed sexual offenses and 92% were incarcerated for violent crimes.

"The report found that 91.7% of male inmates who identified as transgender women surveyed were incarcerated for a violent offense, including 41.6% for homicide. By contrast, according to the Correctional Service of Canada’s 2021 annual report, 25.8% of male inmates (who identify as male) were serving sentences for a violent offense, which includes homicide/manslaughter, attempted murder, aggravated assault, and other violent offenses.

"Additionally, the researchers determined that 62.7% of male inmates who identified as transgender women had a low reintegration potential, 39.3% required maximum security, and 74.6% had “high static risk,” which refers to a high level of risk that an individual will reoffend based on factors that are relatively unchangeable or “static.”

"The Daily Wire sought clarification for the biological sex of the individuals with a history of sexual offenses, and Marie Pier Lécuyer, the senior media relations advisor for the Correctional Service Canada, explained that “of the 33 gender diverse offenders identified with a sex offense history, 84.9% (28) were male and 15.1% (5) were female at the time of the study.”

"With this new information, it can be deduced that 85% of the inmates who identified as transgender women or “other” with a history of sexual offenses were in fact male. About 94% of the crimes were committed prior to adopting a transgender identity, with 64% having committed a “current sex offense” while they were incarcerated, and 88% convicted of prior sex offenses before they were incarcerated.

"The majority (85%) had committed a sex offense that caused death or serious harm to their victims, with over half of the victims being children (58%) or female (55%). Nearly 70% had inflicted psychological harm on their victims and a third of offenders had multiple victims.

"The report found that only about 16% of the males who identified as transgender or “gender diverse” applied for a transfer to a women’s prison. Among those who made this request, 62% were granted approval, 19% were denied, and 19% were still pending at the time of the study. No females who identified as transgender men sought to transfer to a men’s prison."

Again, as with Scottish male-to-female prisoners, the percentage incarcerated for murder or rape is not only astronomically higher than for females, is astronomically higher than for males. What about the UK? One article notes:

"Almost 100 transgender prisoners have convictions for sex offences, official figures show. Some 97 of the 230 inmates – 42 per cent – living under a different gender identity are in jail for sex crimes. They include 44 jailed for rape and 14 who forced under-age children into sexual activity. Another 11 were convicted of sexual assault and seven for possessing or making child abuse images."

Indeed, one UK parliamentary report compares rates:

"Comparisons of official MOJ statistics from March / April 2019 (most recent official count of transgender prisoners):

"76 sex offenders out of 129 transwomen = 58.9%

"125 sex offenders out of 3812 women in prison = 3.3%

"13234 sex offenders out of 78781 men in prison = 16.8%

I am struggling to find hard numbers on UK murderers in prison who identify as m-to-f. One article suggests the number has increased rapidly. However, we do know from UK statistics that 80% of trans-identified prisoners are biologially males, which falls in line with male pattern offending.

So what I'm seeing as someone who works with numbers day in and day out, is that in line with male patterns of offending, trans prisoners arelikely to be 80% biologically male. But then differing from both male and female patterns of offending, biologically male trans prisoners are far, far more likely to be in jail for murder or for rape/sexual assault than for lesser crimes.

Responding to this data, one wag produced this graphic on likelihood of being in prison for sexual offending in the UK:













This is a remarkable visual, and should give everyone pause. Biologically male trans prisoners are not like any other type of prisoner. It is obvious beyond any need for explanation that they should not be in women's prisons. If the choice is to not allow them to be in men's prisons for their own safety, then they should be in their own separate facility or wing. And last but certainly not least, their crimes should not be recorded as crimes committed by women.